The Warren Report

Housing and Economy Headed for Sustainable Recovery; First-Time Homebuyers Lead the Way

 RISMEDIA, November 18, 2009—Aided by the home buyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the projections are enhanced by a tax credit expansion to more home buyers through the middle of 2010. “Given the success of the first-time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices,” he said. “In fact, the credit is working better than first projected – it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.”

The 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows first-time buyers accounted for a record 47% share of home sales over the past year, up from 41% in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36% in 2006.

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0% over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6% to 5.69 million in 2010. “A steady draw down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy,” Yun said.

New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3% in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8% by the end of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for home buyers.

“We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year and home prices appear to be in the early stages of stabilizing. With the expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5% in 2010, but with wide geographic differences,” Yun said. He expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product to be at a pace of 2.5% in the current quarter, with GDP up 2.8% in 2010.

The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5% by the end of next year.

“The size of the U.S. budget deficit is a concern going forward, and carries the risk of higher inflation. At this point, that risk appears to be restrained,” Yun said. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen contracting 0.4% this year, then rising 1.6% in 2010. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 0.4% this year and 1.2% next year.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org .

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com.

Yahoo News Reports New US home sales rise 6.2 percent

By ALAN ZIBEL, AP Real Estate Writer

WASHINGTON – Sales of new homes rose last month to the highest level in more than a year as strong activity in the South offset weakness in the rest of the country.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales rose 6.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 430,000 from an upwardly revised 405,000 in September. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a pace of 410,000.

There were 239,000 new homes for sale at the end of October, the lowest inventory level in nearly four decades. At the current sales pace, that's a 6.7 months of supply, down from last winter's peak of more than a year.

"If you're looking for a sign that builders will need to start swinging their hammers again soon, this is it," wrote Mike Larson, real estate analyst at Weiss Research.

The report tallies signed contracts to buy homes, rather than completed sales. Home shoppers in October were acting before lawmakers decided to extend a tax credit for first-time buyers and expand it to some existing homeowners. The credit now covers contracts signed by April 30, and analysts expect it to further the housing recovery in the coming months.

"It's all thanks to the government," said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. Sales are up 31 percent from the bottom in January, but down 69 percent from their peak in July 2005.

The surge in sales was driven entirely by a 23 percent increase in the South. Sales fell about 5 percent in the West and Northeast, and fell 20 percent in the Midwest.

Despite the lack of certainty about the tax credit that buyers faced in October, sales were up 5.1 percent from a year ago, the first yearly increase since November 2005.

The median sales price of $212,200 was almost even with $213,200 a year earlier, but up almost 1 percent from September's level of $210,700.

Last month, Ryder Homes of Nevada Inc. resumed construction on houses at two of its communities around Reno. "We're finding people aren't coming in willing to wait six months," said Rob Dunbar, Ryder's land development manager.

The resale market is also strong. the National Association of Realtors said Monday home resales rose 10 percent from September to October, the biggest monthly increase in a decade. Along with the tax credit, buyers are being attracted by low prices and mortgage rates.

The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.78 percent this week, matching a record low set at the end of April, Freddie Mac said Wednesday.

__

AP Real Estate Writer Alex Veiga contributed to this report.

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House Prices Increase Slightly in Third Quarter 2009; First Quarterly Increase since Second Quarter 2007

 RISMEDIA, November 25, 2009—U.S. house prices rose modestly in the third quarter of 2009 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index (HPI). The HPI, calculated using home sales price information from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac-acquired mortgages, was 0.2% higher on a seasonally adjusted basis in the third quarter than in the second quarter of 2009. Over the past year, seasonally adjusted prices fell 3.8% from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009.

FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for September 2009 was unchanged from August. The monthly change for the July-to-August period was revised to -0.5%, from an initial estimate of -0.3%. “These data provide some evidence of short-term stabilization in housing prices, a likely result of the many ongoing efforts to stabilize markets,” said DeMarco. “Given the headwinds facing markets across the country, including high unemployment rates and continued high levels of delinquency and foreclosures, the longer-term view remains uncertain.”

While the national, purchase-only house price index fell 3.8% from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009, prices of other goods and services fell 2.8%. Accordingly, the inflation-adjusted price of houses fell approximately 1.0% over the latest year.

Unlike the FHFA purchase-only index, FHFA’s all-transactions house price index, which includes data from mortgages used for both home purchases and refinancings, fell over the latest quarter. The index declined 2.4% in the latest quarter and 4.1% over the four-quarter period.

Additional findings include:
-Of the nine Census Divisions, the Mountain and Pacific Divisions, both in the Western U.S., experienced the most significant price movements in the latest quarter. Prices fell 1.4% in the Mountain Division, while prices increased 1.9% in the Pacific Division.

-Seasonally adjusted, purchase-only indexes indicate that prices rose in the latest quarter in 19 states and Washington, D.C. Prices rose over the latest four quarters in only seven states.

-The purchase-only index for California rose 2.1% between the second and third quarters of this year.

-Of the purchase-only indexes for the 25 most-populated metropolitan areas in the U.S., four-quarter price declines were greatest in the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area. In that area, prices declined 22.0% between the third quarters of 2008 and 2009. Prices held up best in the Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO Metropolitan Area, where prices rose 3.3% over that period.

For more information, visit www.fhfa.gov .

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CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

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5 Tips to Buying a Home on Deadline and How the Tax Credit Extension Can Help

 RISMEDIA, November 24, 2009—(MCT)—House shopping usually slows down in the winter, as people put their home searches on hold to trim the tree, buy presents to put under it and avoid the chilly weather. This winter, however, might be different, thanks to the extended—and expanded—first-time home-buyer tax credit.

“We’re going to see far more interest in the fourth quarter than we generally do because of the tax credit,” said Heather Fernandez, vice president of Trulia.com, a real estate search engine. Traffic surged on the site on Nov. 5, the day Congress approved the credit extension, she said.

The new law extends the tax credit for first-time home buyers and opens it up to some existing homeowners as well: The credit is now 10% of the home price, up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat buyers. All buyers must have a binding contract on a house in place on or before April 30, 2010. The sale must close on or before June 30. 2010.

To be considered a first-time home buyer, an individual must not have owned a home in the past three years. And to be eligible, existing homeowners need to have lived in the same principal residence for five consecutive years during the eight-year period that ends when the new home is purchased. The credit is only for principal residences.

Income limits have risen as well. According to the IRS, the home buyer tax credit now phases out for individuals with modified adjusted gross incomes between $125,000 and $145,000, and between $225,000 and $245,000 for people filing joint returns.

The inclusion of move-up buyers might inspire homeowners to take action and list their house if they’ve been putting it off, said Carolyn Warren, a Seattle, Wash.-based mortgage broker and banker and author of the book Homebuyers Beware. “If somebody loves their home, it’s not going to entice them to sell. If they’ve had it on the back of their minds and really would like to move up, it might push them into doing it sooner than later,” Warren said.

The credit isn’t expected to have as large of an effect on move-up buyers as it has on first-time buyers, according to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions. The maximum tax credit is about 4% of the average purchase price for first-time buyers, but about 2% of the average purchase price for move-up buyers.

“We estimate that the first-time home buyer tax credit will result in a 10% increase in home sales from March through November of 2009,” said Thomas Popik, research director for Campbell Surveys, in a news release. “We’d expect the effect of the proposed tax credit for current homeowners to be about half as large—from December until the tax credit expiration in the spring of next year, it might be 5% of 3 million transactions, or about 150,000 incremental home sales. Incremental sales to first-time home buyers could be an additional 300,000, for a total of 450,000 incremental sales due to the tax credit extension.”

Tips for buyers
Interested in buying a home and claiming the home-buyer tax credit? Below are five tips:

1. Don’t procrastinate. Start searching for a home now. Getting an early start will give you a better chance of finding the right house before the credit deadline. Before you start house hunting, get preapproved for a mortgage, said Eddie Fadel, a Miami-based mortgage banker, and do a realistic assessment of what you can afford. Buyers who have to sell an existing home should price it aggressively from the beginning to drum up interest and get a buyer as soon as possible.

2. Don’t count on another extension. The credit won’t be available forever, Fadel said. If you want to take advantage, be sure to make that spring deadline.

“This is a medication for the housing crisis. Once the patient—which is the housing market—cures, there will be no medication needed,” he said.

3. Mind the interest rates. Mortgage interest rates are low right now, but will likely rise next year. Higher rates will affect your monthly mortgage payments, thus the affordability of the house you are buying. Average rates on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage have been hovering around 5%, but when the government stops buying large amounts of mortgage-backed securities, rates could rise.

4. Communicate with your lender. Throughout the process, make sure you’re communicating with your lender regularly; if there’s a piece of documentation you’re asked for, get it turned in as soon as possible, said Doug Heddings, a New York-based real estate agent with Charles Rutenberg Realty. Good communication is important in making sure the loan closes on time. And think twice before pursuing a short sale if you want to make the credit deadline. That’s where someone sells a home for less than what he or she owes on a mortgage, with permission of the lender. The process can be lengthy and unpredictable because the homeowner’s lender has to approve any deal, and can be complicated when there is a second mortgage associated with the property.

5. Don’t take shortcuts. Don’t forgo any of the steps you would normally take just to make the tax credit deadline. Make sure the house is a good fit for your needs and get a home inspection. Skipping steps could cost you in the long run.

(c) 2009, MarketWatch.com Inc.

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

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U.S. existing home sales seen at highest since July 2007

By Julie Haviv 

New York (Reuters) – Sales of existing U.S. homes likely rose for a second consecutive month in October, reaching their highest since July 2007, according to a Reuters poll, as buyers scrambled to take advantage of greater affordability and a first-time home buyer tax credit.

The survey of 29 economists predicted sales of previously owned homes climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.70 million, the fastest pace since 5.73 million units were sold in July 2007 and up from 5.57 million units in September.

Forecasts ranged from as low as a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million to as high as 6.00 million units.

Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes for which a sale closed during the month.

The National Association of Realtors will release U.S. existing home sales data on Monday at 10 a.m. EST.

(Additional reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Dan Grebler)

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

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Housing Affordability Hovers Near Record-High Level for Third Consecutive Quarter

 RISMEDIA, November 23, 2009—Nationwide housing affordability, bolstered by affordable interest rates and low house prices, hovered for the third consecutive quarter near its highest level since the series was first compiled 18 years ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). The HOI showed that 70.1% of all new and existing homes sold in the third quarter of 2009 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,000, down slightly from a near-record 72.3% during the previous quarter and up from 56.1% during the third quarter of 2008.

“At a time when housing is at its most affordable, we applaud the recent actions taken by Congress and President Obama to stimulate housing by extending the federal tax credit beyond its Nov. 30 deadline and expanding it to a wider group of eligible home buyers,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “With interest rates now lower than last quarter, the tax credit will encourage even more home buyers to enter the market and help stabilize housing and the economy by creating new jobs, stimulating home sales, reducing foreclosures, cutting excess inventories and stabilizing home prices.”

Read the full article at: http://rismedia.com/2009-11-22/housing-affordability-hovers-near-record-high-level-for-third-consecutive-quarter/

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Tax Credit Expands Home Buyer, Economic Opportunities; On Pace to Help 70% of Potential Home Buyers

 RISMEDIA, November 19, 2009—The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is spreading the word to consumers about an important new law that extends and expands an attractive tax incentive for potential home buyers. The Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009, signed into law by President Obama on Nov. 6, extends the deadline for the first-time home buyer tax credit and gives a larger group of home buyers the chance to take advantage of this government program.

“The tax credit has already proven to be an effective means of boosting economic activity,” said NAHB Chairman Joe Robson, a home builder from Tulsa, Okla. “We hope that the government’s action to enhance it will have the intended additional stimulative effect that will help get housing and the economy back on solid ground.”

The new law extends the $8,000 first-time home buyer credit through April 30, 2010, giving buyers who have signed a sales contract by that deadline until June 30 to close their deal. A new credit of up to $6,500 was created for repeat home buyers who buy a principal residence if they have been residing in the home they currently own (or previously owned) for five consecutive years out of the eight years preceding the purchase of the new home.

“It’s not just a first-time buyer tax credit anymore,” Robson said. “Move-up buyers, move-down buyers, and others who have previously owned a home can now qualify as well. In fact, close to 70 percent of all potential home buyers should now qualify for some form of the credit.”

Income limits for eligible buyers have also been increased to allow more consumers to qualify, particularly those in markets with a higher cost of living. Now single taxpayers with incomes up to $125,000 and married couples earning up to $225,000 may be eligible. Partial credits are available to home buyers who earn up to $20,000 more than the limits.

A leading source of consumer information on the tax credit is NAHB’s website at www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com, which saw a huge increase in visits in the days after the new law was signed. It provides basic information about the first-time and repeat buyer credits, detailed question and answer sections, and links to additional home-buying resources for consumers.

“The federalhousingtaxcredit.com website had more than 70,000 visits on the Monday after the President enacted the law,” said Robson. “Since the site was established in mid-2008, there have been more than 6 million visits by people seeking information about the home buyer tax credits. That tells you how hungry consumers are for easy-to-understand information on this great opportunity that has been opened to them.”

NAHB estimates that the home buyer tax credit will create 211,000 jobs and generate 180,000 additional home sales in the coming year. It is also expected to generate $9.6 billion in wage income and $6.9 billion in federal, state and local taxes.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org or www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com .

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Housing and Economy Headed for Sustainable Recovery; First-Time Homebuyers Lead the Way

 RISMEDIA, November 18, 2009—Aided by the home buyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the projections are enhanced by a tax credit expansion to more home buyers through the middle of 2010. “Given the success of the first-time buyer tax credit to date, and the need for qualified buyers to continue to absorb inventory that will include additional foreclosures over the coming year, we are hopeful about the impact of the expanded tax credit because it will stabilize home prices,” he said. “In fact, the credit is working better than first projected – it now looks like we’ll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year.”

The 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows first-time buyers accounted for a record 47% share of home sales over the past year, up from 41% in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36% in 2006.

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2.0% over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6% to 5.69 million in 2010. “A steady draw down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy,” Yun said.

New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3% in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8% by the end of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for home buyers.

“We’ve seen a steady downtrend in housing inventory for well over a year and home prices appear to be in the early stages of stabilizing. With the expansion of the tax credit to additional buyers through the middle of next year, and no major unforeseen events impacting the economy, home prices should rise between 3 and 5% in 2010, but with wide geographic differences,” Yun said. He expects growth in the U.S. gross domestic product to be at a pace of 2.5% in the current quarter, with GDP up 2.8% in 2010.

The unemployment rate is close to peaking and is projected to ease to 9.5% by the end of next year.

“The size of the U.S. budget deficit is a concern going forward, and carries the risk of higher inflation. At this point, that risk appears to be restrained,” Yun said. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen contracting 0.4% this year, then rising 1.6% in 2010. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 0.4% this year and 1.2% next year.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org .

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Atlanta Business Chronicle Reports: NAR Says Housing, economy outlook hopeful

Atlanta Business Chronicle

11/13/2009

Aided by the home buyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, the National Association of Realtors said Friday.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the projections are enhanced by a tax credit expansion to more home buyers through the middle of 2010. "In fact, the credit is working better than first projected -- it now looks like we'll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year," Yun said.

A consumer study by the NAR shows that first-time buyers accounted for a record 47 percent share of home sales over the past year, up from 41 percent in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36 percent in 2006.

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2 percent over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6 percent to 5.69 million in 2010. "A steady draw down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy," Yun said.

New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8 percent by the end of next year, NAR reported, adding that its housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for home buyers.

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com

Atlanta Business Chronicle Reports: NAR Says Housing, economy outlook hopeful

Atlanta Business Chronicle

11/13/2009

Aided by the home buyer tax credit, the outlook for housing and the economy appears headed for a sustainable recovery, the National Association of Realtors said Friday.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the projections are enhanced by a tax credit expansion to more home buyers through the middle of 2010. "In fact, the credit is working better than first projected -- it now looks like we'll have 2.3 to 2.4 million first-time buyers this year," Yun said.

A consumer study by the NAR shows that first-time buyers accounted for a record 47 percent share of home sales over the past year, up from 41 percent in the 2008 survey. The share has risen steadily since a cyclical low of 36 percent in 2006.

Existing-home sales are expected to total 5.01 million in 2009, a gain of 2 percent over last year, and then are forecast to rise 13.6 percent to 5.69 million in 2010. "A steady draw down of inventory will help home values to turn positive in 2010, but risks such as unemployment remain in the economy," Yun said.

New-home sales are projected at 397,000 this year, recovering to 549,000 in 2010. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should total 564,000 units this year but grow to 752,000 in 2010.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will probably average 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter, rising gradually to 5.8 percent by the end of next year, NAR reported, adding that its housing affordability index will set a record in 2009, averaging 30 percentage points higher than 2008. Affordability will decline from record highs next year but will remain at historically attractive levels for home buyers.

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com

Existing-Home Sales Surge in Many States in Third Quarter, Metro Prices Moderating

RISMEDIA, November 16, 2009—Most states continued to experience rising existing-home sales in the third quarter 2009, with prices moderating in many metro areas, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors®. Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, increased 11.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.30 million units in the third quarter from 4.76 million units in the second quarter, and are now 5.9% above the 5.01 million-unit pace in the third quarter of 2008. Sales increased from the second quarter in 45 states and the District of Columbia; 28 states and D.C. saw double-digit gains. Year-over-year sales were higher in 32 states and D.C.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the tax credit is a significant factor. “We can’t underestimate just how powerful a catalyst the first-time home buyer tax credit has been for the housing sector,” he said. “It’s given buyers the confidence they needed to get off the fence and take advantage of extremely affordable housing conditions. The buying conditions this year are the most favorable on record dating back to 1970, but the tax credit is allowing buyers to set aside any reservations about waiting for a better deal.”

During the third quarter, 123 out of 153 metropolitan statistical areas reported lower median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the third quarter of 2008, while 30 areas had price gains.

The national median existing single-family price was $177,900, which is 11.2% below the third quarter of 2008; the median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed sales- foreclosures and short sales- accounted for 30% of transactions in the third quarter, which continued to weigh down median home prices because they sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.

“The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas, but we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market,” Yun said. “Foreclosures will continue to come on the market, but rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring and help to stem future foreclosures.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.16% in the third quarter from a record low 5.03% in the second quarter, but was dramatically lower than the 6.32% average rate in the third quarter of 2008.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said he is encouraged by recent actions in Congress. “Extending and expanding the tax credit to more buyers through the middle of next year is the right medicine,” he said. “Congress understands the impact of housing on the economy, so consumers who aren’t able to complete a transaction before the end of this month now have a second chance but must have a contract in place by April 30, 2010.”

The biggest sales gain between the second and third quarters was in North Dakota, up 42.3%; followed by Rhode Island which rose 26.5%; and Pennsylvania, up 25.6%. The largest single-family home price increase in the third quarter was in the Cumberland area of Maryland and West Virginia at $122,100, up 19.2% from the third quarter of 2008. Next was the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island area of Iowa and Illinois, where the median price increased 14.3% to $115,600, followed by Oklahoma City, at $144,100, up 9.1% from a year ago.

“The wide range of market performance and reversals around the country, ranging from double-digit gains to double-digit losses in both sales and prices, underscores just how local real estate truly is,” Yun said. “The wide changes and mix of numbers also indicates a market in transition, hopefully to one that is becoming more balanced and stable.”

Median third-quarter metro area single-family home prices ranged from a very affordable $61,400 in the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan to $566,000 in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California. The second most expensive area in the third quarter was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont at $538,100; followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area of California at $498,800.

Other affordable markets include the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania at $70,700, and Lansing-East Lansing, Mich., at $86,600.

In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices- covering changes in 55 metro areas- showed the national median existing-condo price was $178,000 in the third quarter, down 15.4% from the third quarter of 2008. Four metros showed annual increases in the median condo price and 51 areas had declines.

The metros experiencing condo price gains were San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, at $215,100, up 13.3%; followed by the Cincinnati-Middletown area, up 2.0% to $119,700; the Toledo, Ohio, area, where the median price of $130,400 rose 1.7% from the third quarter of 2008; and the Indianapolis area at $114,400, up 0.8%.

Metro area median existing-condo prices in the third quarter ranged from $67,600 in Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev., to $432,800 in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont. The second most expensive reported condo market was New York-Wayne-White Plains at $297,500, followed by Boston-Cambridge-Quincy at $293,700. Other affordable condo markets include Reno-Sparks, Nev., at $81,300 in the third quarter, and Jacksonville, Fla., at $91,600.

Northeast

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast surged 16.7% in the third quarter to a pace of 930,000 units and are 6.9% higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 9.4% to $244,500 in the third quarter from the same quarter in 2008. The best price gain in the region was in Buffalo-Niagara Falls, N.Y., where the median price of $119,700 rose 4.8% from the third quarter of 2008; followed by Manchester-Nashua, N.H., at $237,600, up 2.6%; and the Pittsburgh area, where the median price rose 1.5 percent to $124,600.

Midwest

In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 13.2% in the third quarter to a pace of 1.20 million and are 5.2% above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was down 5.5% to $150,200 in the third quarter from the same period in 2008. After Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, the next strongest metro price increase in the region was in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where the median price of $145,700 was 7.6% higher than a year ago; followed by Bismarck, N.D., at $157,200, up 7.5%; and Ft. Wayne, Ind., where the median price rose 6.9 percent to $102,500.

South

In the South, existing-home sales rose 11.3% in the third quarter to an annual rate of 1.97 million and are 5.9% higher than the third quarter of 2008. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $160,000 in the third quarter, down 7.9% from a year earlier. After Cumberland and Oklahoma City, the next strongest price increase in the region was in Shreveport-Bossier City, La., at $152,300, up 8.6% from the third quarter of 2008; Jackson, Miss., at $141,200, up 4.6%; and Durham, N.C., where the median price rose 3.6% to $184,300.

West

Existing-home sales in the West increased 5.6% in the third quarter to an annual rate of 1.19 million and are 4.6% above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $224,000 in the third quarter, which is 16.4% below the third quarter of 2008. The best metro price performance in the West was in Yakima, Wash., where the median price of $158,400 rose 2.7% from a year earlier; the Denver-Aurora area at $229,100, up 1.8%; and the Kennewick-Richland-Pasco area of Washington, where the median price rose 0.7% to $172,200.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org.

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

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The Basics: Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit 2009/2010

Bringing the Dream of Homeownership Within Reach

As part of its plan to stimulate the U.S. housing market and address the economic challenges facing our nation, Congress has passed new legislation that:

• Extends the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit of up to $8,000 to first-time home buyers until April 30, 2010.
• Expands the credit to grant up to $6,500 credit to current home owners purchasing a new or existing home between November 7, 2009 and April 30, 2010.

Here is more information about how the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit can help prospective home buyers become part of the American dream.

Who Qualifies for the Extended Credit?

• First-time home buyers who purchase homes between November 7, 2009 and April 30, 2010.
  
• Current home owners purchasing a home between November 7, 2009 and April 30, 2010, who have used the home being sold or vacated as a principal residence for five consecutive years within the last eight.

To qualify as a “first-time home buyer” the purchaser or his/her spouse may not have owned a residence during the three years prior to the purchase.

Which Properties Are Eligible?

The Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit may be applied to primary residences, including: single-family homes, condos, townhomes, and co-ops.

How Much Is Available?

The maximum allowable credit for first-time home buyers is $8,000.

The maximum allowable credit for current homeowners is $6,500.

How is a Buyer's Credit Amount Determined?

Each home buyer’s tax credit is determined by tow additional factors:

1. The price of the home.
2. The buyer's income.

Price

Under the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit, credit may only be awarded on homes purchased for $800,000 or less.

Buyer Income

Under the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit, which is effective on November 7, 2009,  single buyers with incomes up to $125,000 and married couples with incomes up to $225,000—may receive the maximum tax credit.

These income limits have changed from the 2009 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit limits.

If the Buyer(s)’ Income Exceeds These Limits, Can He/She Still Get a Credit?

Yes, some buyers may still be eligible for the credit.

The credit decreases for buyers who earn between $125,000 and $145,000 for single buyers and between $225,000 and $245,000 for home buyers filing jointly. The amount of the tax credit decreases as his/her income approaches the maximum limit. Home buyers earning more than the maximum qualifying income—over $145,000 for singles and over $245,000 for couples are not eligible for the credit.

Can a Buyer Still Qualify If He/She Closes After April 30, 2010?

Under the Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit, as long as a written binding contract to purchase is in effect on April 30, 2010, the purchaser will have until July 1, 2010 to close.

Will the Tax Credit Need to Be Repaid?

No. The buyer does not need to repay the tax credit, if he/she occupies the home for three years or more. However, if the property is sold during this three-year period, the full amount credit will be recouped on the sale.

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Tax Credit Extension a Positive Step Toward Sustained Real Estate Recovery, Say Realtors®

Washington, November 05, 2009

The National Association of Realtors® today commended the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives for passing a bill that includes an extension and expansion of the current home buyer tax credit as an important step in ensuring a real estate and economic recovery.

“Realtors® appreciate the swift action by Congress to extend the home buyer tax credit and expand it to some current homeowners,” said NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate in Dallas-Fort Worth. “As the leading advocate of housing and real estate issues, we urge President Obama to sign this legislation into law quickly to keep the momentum going in the fragile recovery of the nation’s housing market.”

McMillan praised the efforts of several senators to put the recovery above politics. They are Sen. Johnny Isakson, (R-Ga.); Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.); Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.); Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.), chairman of the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee; and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

NAR economists estimate that the current tax credit has contributed approximately $22 billion to the general economy, and approximately 2 million people will take advantage of the tax credit this year.

“The substantial rise in home sales we’ve seen over the past few months proves that the tax credit is working and is being used by buyers who were waiting for the right opportunity to get into the market,” McMillan said. “This important incentive is helping to stabilize the housing market, stimulate the economy and create new jobs in communities all across our great nation. Extending and expanding the home buyer tax credit will enable even more families to take advantage of current low interest rates and affordable prices to invest in their future through homeownership.”

The bill would extend the present $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers through April 30, 2010. Current homeowners are eligible for a $6,500 tax credit through April 30, provided they have lived in the home they are selling, or have sold, as principal residence for five consecutive years in the past eight years. If potential home buyers have a binding contract on or before that date, they will have until July 1 to close the transaction.

Income limits for eligible home buyers are expanded to $125,000 for single buyers and $225,000 for couples. The purchase price of the home cannot exceed $800,000. To help guard against fraud, buyers are required to attach documentation of purchase to their tax return.

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Just posted on http://TheWarrenReport.info - BREAKING NEWS: Obama Signs Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension

RISMEDIA, November 6, 2009—President Barack Obama has approved the first-time homebuyer tax credit extension which will extend the tax credit until April 30, 2010.

The extension is part of a $24 billion economic stimulus bill that will extend the $8,000 tax credit for homebuyers who are purchasing their first home from the current November 30 deadline and expands the program to offer a credit of $6,500 to homeowners who have lived in their current home for at least five years and are seeking to relocate.

The following details apply to the homebuyer tax credit expansion:

Who is Eligible
-First-time homebuyers, who are defined by the law as buyers who have not owned a principal residence during the three-year period prior to the purchase, may be eligible for up to an $8,000 tax credit.
-Existing homeowners who have been residing in their principal residence for five consecutive years out of the last eight and are purchasing a home to be their principal residence (“repeat buyer”), may be eligible for up to a $6,500 tax credit.
-All U.S. citizens who file taxes are eligible to participate in the program.

Income Limits
Homebuyers who file as single or head-of-household taxpayers can claim the full credit ($8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers) if their modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is less than $125,000.
-For married couples filing a joint return, the combined income limit is $225,000.
-Single or head-of-household taxpayers who earn between $125,000 and $145,000, and married couples who earn between $225,000 and $245,000 are eligible to receive a partial credit.
-The credit is not available for single taxpayers whose MAGI is greater than $145,000 and married couples with a MAGI that exceeds $245,000.

Effective Dates
-The eligibility period for the tax credit is for homes purchased after Nov. 6, 2009, and before May 1, 2010. However, home purchases subject to a binding sales contract signed by April 30, 2010, will qualify for the tax credit provided closing occurs prior to July 1, 2010.

Types of Homes that Qualify
-All homes with a purchase price of less than $800,000 qualify, including newly-constructed or resale, and single-family detached, townhomes or condominiums, provided that the home will be used as their principal residence. Vacation home and rental property purchases do NOT qualify.

Tax Credit is Refundable
-A refundable credit means that if the amount of income taxes you owe is less than the credit amount you qualify for, the government will send you a check for the difference.
-For example:
-A first-time buyer who qualifies for the full $8,000 credit who owes $5,000 in federal income taxes would pay nothing to the IRS and receive a $3,000 payment from the government. If you are due to receive a $1,000 refund, you would receive $9,000 ($1,000 plus the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit).
-A repeat buyer who owes $5,000 would pay nothing to the IRS and receive $1,500 back from the government. If you are due to get a $1,000 refund, you would get $7,500 ($1,000 plus the $6,500 repeat buyer tax credit).
-All qualified homebuyers can take the tax credit on their 2009 or 2010 income tax return.

Payback Provisions
The tax credit is a true credit. It does not have to be repaid unless the home owner sells or stops using the home as their principal residence within three years after the purchase.

The www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com site is being updated. Check the site next week for more detailed information on the new tax credit.

For more information, visit www.nahb.org.

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Atlanta Business Chronicle Reports: Metrostudy: ATL housing market hit bottom in Q3

Atlanta Business Chronicle

Thursday, November 5, 2009, 9:32am EST

Metro Atlanta’s housing inventory began to deplete in the third quarter and housing starts rose, according to Metrostudy’s third-quarter housing report.

“Atlanta’s housing market has hit a bottom,” said Eugene James, director of Metrostudy’s Atlanta division. “Almost all housing indicators have reversed and are now heading in a positive direction. Finished inventory has been reduced to a level where builders have been forced to resume building new homes.”

This September, Atlanta’s finished inventory was reduced to about 11,000 units, which is a 37 percent decline from September 2008 and a 48 percent decline from September 2007, according to Metrostudy. Finished vacant housing inventory is one of the fundamental indicators Metrostudy uses to monitor the health of the market.

Closings have surpassed starts for three years now. Plus, the gap between new-home sales and starts has widened each quarter.

In the third quarter of 2009, annual closings totaled 14,980, while annual starts totaled 4,748 in metro Atlanta. Total net absorption was 7,060, with more homes sold than built and delivered during the 12 months ending in September 2009. The result is depletion of finished housing inventory, James said.

The reduction of inventory has encouraged Atlanta builders to switch gears during the third quarter and instead of slowing the pace of starts, they started more homes than in the previous quarter. James said the uptick in starts was a bright spot in the market. Atlanta builders started 1,152 homes in the third quarter of 2009, an increase of 17 percent compared to second-quarter starts.

“At 12.8 months, the new-home supply situation looks worse than it is,” James said. “We do not have an oversupply problem, we have a demand problem. The months-of-supply figure is inflated because of the unusually slow closings pace. As demand returns to the market, the months-of-supply figure will normalize.”

Demand has been hampered by the difficulty home buyers have qualifying for mortgages. Credit remains very tight, challenging both home buyers and builders. Continued job losses and high unemployment also hurt consumer confidence, James said. Demand for new homes will grow when the job market improves.

Despite poor demand, as evidenced by only 3,534 closings during the third quarter, the months of supply for finished housing declined from the second quarter. It was the first quarter-over-quarter decline in months of supply of finished homes in four years.

Metrostudy expects the months of supply will continue to decline in coming quarters.

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

BREAKING NEWS: Congress Passes Homebuyer Tax Credit Expansion

By Steve Cook

RISMEDIA, November 6, 2009—After the Senate gave final approval last night without a dissenting vote, the House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly this afternoon to pass legislation containing an extension and expansion of the homebuyer tax credit, completing Congressional action and sending the tax credit to President Obama for his signature, possibly as early as tomorrow. The $8,000 homebuyer tax credit for first-time buyers, due to expire in 25 days, will be extended through April 30 of next year and buyers will have an additional two months, until the end of June, to close. First-time buyers who are in the process of making a purchase will no longer need to worry about qualifying for the $8,000 credit if they close after the November 30 deadline. The new legislation increases the income limit for couples with income up to $225,000, a nearly $55,000 increase above the level in existing law. For the first time, the new legislation makes buyers who already own a home eligible for a credit. A $6,500 maximum credit will be available to existing homeowners who have lived in their current residence for five of the prior eight years. The legislation limits eligibility for the existing homeowner credit to homes worth $800,000 or less. The legislation takes effect December 1 and is not retroactive. Both credits are available only for primary residences, not second homes or investment properties. In the House debate, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) took the floor to say the homebuyer tax credit was helping a new generation of Americans live out their dream of homeownership and financial independence. Debate on the homebuyer credit was overwhelmingly positive and the legislation passed 403 to 12. However, several leading economists have voiced concern about the $16.7 billion cost of the credit and the wisdom of spending up to $400,000 per homebuyer to stimulate real estate sales and White House support for extending the credit has been lukewarm at best. However, it is virtually certain that the President will sign the legislative package, which contains an expansion of unemployment benefits as well as the tax changes. In the Senate, the homebuyer tax credit was amended to a bill expanding unemployment benefits by 20 weeks for those who have exhausted their benefit. The latest unemployment numbers are due out tomorrow and Congressional leaders are rushing the unemployment bill to the White House so that the President can show compassion by signing on the same day more job losses are announced. The legislation included provisions added to address complaints of fraud. The Internal Revenue Service is given greater authority to oversee the process to root out fraud, and provisions are added in response to past abuses of false sales or underage buyers. An investigation by the Treasury Department’s Inspector General for Tax Administration found that more than 580 children, some as young as four years old, had received $627,000 in first-time homebuyer credits. The IRS has identified 167 suspected criminal schemes and opened nearly 107,000 examinations of potential civil violations of the first-time homebuyer tax credit. The legislation also contains a provision supported by the National Association of Home Builders which will help larger companies strapped for cash with net operating losses (NOL). Ordinarily these companies can carry back these losses for only two years to qualify for a tax refund. The provision would make this process extend the carry-back to five years for either 2008 or 2009. The tax break will now apply to losses in either 2008 or 2009, and the income cap will come off. Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936) or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Senate Clears Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension; May Pass as Early as This Week

 RISMEDIA, November 5, 2009—After two weeks of delay, the Senate cleared the way to pass a seven month extension and expansion of the tax credit for homebuyers. By an 85 to 2 roll call vote, the Senate voted to cut off debate on a package of measures that includes the homebuyer credit, making it virtually certain that the legislation will reach President Obama for his signature this week. 

The homebuyer tax credit, due to expire at the end of November would be extended through April 30 of next year. First-time buyers who are in the process of making a purchase would not need to worry about qualifying for the $8,000 credit if they close after the November 30 deadline. 

For the first time, the legislation that was recently cleared makes move-up buyers as well as first-time buyers eligible for a credit. The $8,000 maximum first-timer credit will continue and will now be available to couples with income up to $225,000, a nearly $55,000 increase above the level in existing law. A new $6,500 maximum credit would also be available to move-up homeowners who have lived in their current residence for five of the prior eight years. 

For homebuyers across the country, the expanded tax credit would allow more people to qualify for the credit. While two-thirds of American families own their own home, and most earn less than the income limits that have been established within the extension, more buyers may be eligible. Move-up buyers don’t have to sell their current home to qualify for the new credit, but the money cannot be used to buy a vacation home. “It’s only for a primary residence,” said Regan Lachapelle, a spokeswoman for Sen. Harry Redi (D-Nev.), who helped engineer the deal. “In expanding the tax credit, we are helping first-time home buyers, as well as homeowners looking to move up to a new home, but we would exclude from the credit speculators who may have recently purchased a home intending to flip it for a fast profit,” said Senator Max Baucus, Democrat of Montana and chairman of the Finance Committee. 

The tax credit has fired-up the housing market, driving existing home sales to the highest level in over two years. The National Association Realtors reported sales jumped 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September and are 9.2% higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. 

The legislation included provisions added to address complaints of fraud as well. The Internal Revenue Service is given greater authority to oversee the process to root out fraud, and provisions are added in response to past abuses of false sales or underage buyers. An investigation by the Treasury Department’s Inspector General for Tax Administration found that more than 580 children, some as young as four years old, had received $627,000 in first-time homebuyer credits. The IRS has identified 167 suspected criminal schemes and opened nearly 107,000 examinations of potential civil violations of the first-time homebuyer tax credit.

For more information, visit www.realestateeconomywatch.com and www.wsj.com . 

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Home sales contracts rise for 8th straight month

Real estate rally attributed to first-time homebuyer tax credit that expires at the end of November.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

Last Updated: November 2, 2009: 10:41 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of signed sales contracts to buy homes rose in September for the eighth straight month, according to a real estate industry report released Monday.

The September Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) spiked 6.1% to 110.1, consolidating a 6.4% gain in August. It was the index's highest level since December 2006, when it stood at 112.8.

The leap was far better than expected. A panel of analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 1.2% rise.

Analysts, including Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, have traced much of the improvement to the government's first-time homebuyer tax credit program, which gives an up to $8,000 tax break to new homebuyers. It's estimated that between 200,000 and 400,000 additional sales will have been made because of the credit.

"What we're witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month," said Yun.

The credit lapses after Nov. 30, and the housing industry is bracing for a major turndown in sales if Congress fails to pass some kind of extension.

"Clearly, buyers were eager to get business done before the credit's November expiration," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research. "So I wouldn't be surprised to see some give back in pending sales over the next month or two."

Favorable long-term prospects

Any fall-off should only be temporary, however, according to Yun. Market conditions are just so favorable for buyers right now that sales should rebound quickly should they suffer through a hangover following the tax credit demise.

With home prices well off their highs and mortgage rates still extremely low, the cost of homeownership is well within the range for many Americans who are not homeowners today. There are, Yun estimates, about 3 million renters who are now financially well-qualified to buy a median-priced home.

"As long as buyers do not overstretch and stay well within their budget, a sizable pent-up demand can be tapped among financially qualified potential buyers," he said.

That will not translate into a new boom, however, according to Larson. "No explosion of pent-up demand will send markets to new heights," he said. "The economy is still not in fantastic shape."

Housing markets certainly do not seem to be out of the woods, but this latest release added to a modest winning streak of positive recent reports. Prices appear to have stabilized, with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index up four months in a row and completed sales of existing homes at their highest level in two years. 

Foreclosures, however, continue to plague many markets, adding to supplies on homes for sale, according to Yun.

"An excess of homes remains on the market despite recent improvements," he said. "Although current inventory is getting closer to price equilibrium, foreclosures will continue to enter the pipeline."

Increased pending sales are a forward-looking indicator since contract signings precede actual closings; they typically take place two to three months later. Although some contract signings fall through, a jump in signings in September usually means NAR statistics on December existing home sales will improve. 

First Published: November 2, 2009: 10:04 AM ET

 

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Home sales contracts rise for 8th straight month

Real estate rally attributed to first-time homebuyer tax credit that expires at the end of November.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

Last Updated: November 2, 2009: 10:41 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of signed sales contracts to buy homes rose in September for the eighth straight month, according to a real estate industry report released Monday.

The September Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) spiked 6.1% to 110.1, consolidating a 6.4% gain in August. It was the index's highest level since December 2006, when it stood at 112.8.

The leap was far better than expected. A panel of analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 1.2% rise.

Analysts, including Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, have traced much of the improvement to the government's first-time homebuyer tax credit program, which gives an up to $8,000 tax break to new homebuyers. It's estimated that between 200,000 and 400,000 additional sales will have been made because of the credit.

"What we're witnessing is a rush of first-time buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit at the end of this month," said Yun.

The credit lapses after Nov. 30, and the housing industry is bracing for a major turndown in sales if Congress fails to pass some kind of extension.

"Clearly, buyers were eager to get business done before the credit's November expiration," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research. "So I wouldn't be surprised to see some give back in pending sales over the next month or two."

Favorable long-term prospects

Any fall-off should only be temporary, however, according to Yun. Market conditions are just so favorable for buyers right now that sales should rebound quickly should they suffer through a hangover following the tax credit demise.

With home prices well off their highs and mortgage rates still extremely low, the cost of homeownership is well within the range for many Americans who are not homeowners today. There are, Yun estimates, about 3 million renters who are now financially well-qualified to buy a median-priced home.

"As long as buyers do not overstretch and stay well within their budget, a sizable pent-up demand can be tapped among financially qualified potential buyers," he said.

That will not translate into a new boom, however, according to Larson. "No explosion of pent-up demand will send markets to new heights," he said. "The economy is still not in fantastic shape."

Housing markets certainly do not seem to be out of the woods, but this latest release added to a modest winning streak of positive recent reports. Prices appear to have stabilized, with the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index up four months in a row and completed sales of existing homes at their highest level in two years. 

Foreclosures, however, continue to plague many markets, adding to supplies on homes for sale, according to Yun.

"An excess of homes remains on the market despite recent improvements," he said. "Although current inventory is getting closer to price equilibrium, foreclosures will continue to enter the pipeline."

Increased pending sales are a forward-looking indicator since contract signings precede actual closings; they typically take place two to three months later. Although some contract signings fall through, a jump in signings in September usually means NAR statistics on December existing home sales will improve. 

First Published: November 2, 2009: 10:04 AM ET

 

Take advantage of the Home Buyer Tax Credit,

CALL us at 770-722-0099 or 1-800-717-OWEN (6936)

or visit our web site at KarenandWarrenOwen.com .

Big Rebound in Existing-Home Sales Shows First-Time Buyer Momentum

 RISMEDIA, October 26, 2009—Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales–including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops–jumped 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2% higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. Sales activity is at the highest level in over two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007. 

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable conditions matched with a tax credit are boosting home sales. “Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to make a trade and buy another home,” he said. “We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery.” 

Even with the improvement, Yun said the market is underperforming. “Despite spectacular gains in the stock market, principally from the financial sector recovery, most of the 75 million home owning families have more wealth tied to their homes. Home values could soon turn consistently positive and help the broad base of middle-class families, but we are not there yet,” he said. “We’re getting early indications of price stabilization, but we need a steady supply of qualified buyers to meaningfully bring inventories down and return us to a period of normal, steady price growth and to fully remove consumer fears, which would then revive the broader economy. Without a firm foundation for middle-class wealth recovery, the post-recession economic growth likely will be one of the weakest in U.S. history.” 

Early information from a large annual consumer study to be released November 13, the 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45% of home sales during the past year. A separate practitioner survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29% of transactions in September. 

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said affordability conditions remain historically high. “Potential first-time buyers can take heart in that affordability conditions this year are the highest on record dating back to 1970, but with the first-time buyer tax credit scheduled to expire at the end of next month, people could hold back from entering the market,” he said. “Our read is that housing overshot on the downside because homes are selling for less than replacement construction costs in much of the country, and the home price-to-income ratio has fallen below the historical average,” McMillan said. 

Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 7.5% to 3.63 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 9.3-month supply in August. Unsold inventory totals are 15.0% below a year ago. 

“The current housing supply is the lowest we’ve seen in two and a half years,” Yun said. “If we could continue to absorb inventory at this pace, home prices would return to normal, modest appreciation patterns next year. 

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.06% in September from 5.19% in August; the rate was 6.04% in September 2008. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5% lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area. 

Single-family home sales rose 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million in September from a pace of 4.47 million in August, and are 7.7% above the 4.54 million-unit level in September 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $174,900 in September, which is 8.1% below a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 units in September from 620,000 in August, and are 9.7% above the 561,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $175,100 in September, down 11.7% from September 2008. 

Northeast
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 4.4% to an annual level of 950,000 in September, and are 11.8% higher than September 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $234,700, down 7.0% from a year ago. 

Midwest
Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.6% in September to a pace of 1.25 million and are 7.8% above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $147,600, which is 1.0% below September 2008. 

South
In the South, existing-home sales rose 9.0% to an annual level of 2.06 million in September and are 10.8% higher than September 2008. The median price in the South was $153,500, down 7.6% from a year ago. 

West
Existing-home sales in the West surged 13.0% to an annual rate of 1.30 million in September and are 5.7% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $219,000, which is 15.0% below September 2008. 

For more information, visit www.realtor.org . 

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